S'pore may miss 2024 key exports forecast after 4.6% fall in October

Global trade and growth prospects in 2025 remain vulnerable to uncertainties: Analyst

- Sue-Ann Tan

Singapore will likely miss its exports forecast for 2024 after its performance turned negative in October and was worse than expected, economists said.

Non-oil domestic exports (Nodx) fell 4.6 per cent from a year ago, according to figures released by Enterprise Singapore (EnterpriseSG) on Nov 18.

Analysts polled by Bloomberg had expected a 4 per cent rise in Nodx.

The trade agency also revised sharply downwards September's year-on-year Nodx growth to 0.9 per cent from an earlier estimate of 2.7 per cent.

EnterpriseSG pointed to its earlier August review of Singapore's first-half-year trade performance that said Nodx for 2024 could come in below its 4 per cent to 5 per cent forecast range.

DBS Bank economist Chua Han Teng noted that the year-on-year Nodx figure for the first 10 months of 2024 is now a 0.9 per cent drop, after accounting for October's disappointment and the September downward revision.

"These suggest downside risks to Enterprise Singapore's full-year 2024 forecast range, even if external demand remains resilient in the final months of 2024," he said.

OCBC Bank chief economist Selena Ling added that if Nodx in November and December grows only 6.2 per cent year on year, then full-year 2024 growth would be a tepid 1 per cent.

"To reach 2 per cent year-on-year growth for the whole of 2024, the remaining two months of Nodx would need to average 12 per cent," she said.