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Global prices have already been rallying near their highest level in more than a decade, with a pound of raw sugar currently trading at nearly 26 US cents, up from around 17 US cents in May 2013.
The Indian government has capped exports for the ongoing sugar production cycle, which runs from October to September each year, at 6.1 million tonnes.
Trade analysts The Straits Times spoke with said a second tranche of exports for the current cycle is unlikely.
"If any new permission for exports is granted, that will be in December 2023 after factoring in primary production estimates for the new season from October 2023 to September 2024," said Mr Praful Jagjivandas Vithalani, the All India Sugar Trade Association's founder chairman.
According to the association, 5.7 million tonnes of the permitted quota have already been exported, with the remainder expected to be shipped out by May 25.
The anticipated restriction on exports, once the cap has been reached, implies further Indian shipments will be sent out only in 2024, with this absence of a key supplier in the global market coming at a time when production has also declined in countries such as China and Thailand.
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