Time for Myanmar's neighbours to recalibrate approach as regime slips

Rapid victories by ethnic armed groups shatter military's image of invincibility

BANGKOK - Urban centres in war-torn parts of Myanmar used to be largely controlled by the military, even after the February 2021 coup that triggered armed resistance against junta rule.

However, rapid victories made over the past month by a powerful alliance of three ethnic armed groups in Myanmar's north, as well as the parallel offensives by other rebel forces they spurred, have shattered this veneer of invincibility.

Border gates between China and Myanmar have been captured by the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, a key member of the Three Brotherhood Alliance that has been fighting to seize Laukkaing, the capital of the Kokang Self-Administered Zone in the north-east.

The other two groups of the alliance, which emerged in 2019, are the Ta'ang National Liberation Army and the Arakan Army.

Further inland, Kawlin township in Sagaing region has come under civilian rule, declared Myanmar's parallel National Unity Government (NUG) on Dec 3.

In Kayah state, ethnic Karenni resistance forces have descended upon the capital of Loikaw, forcing the junta to rely on aerial bombardments to try to retake lost ground.

Pinned down on many fronts, the military has cajoled rather than threatened deserting soldiers to return, promising amnesty for petty crime.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing blamed "foreign drone experts" for helping ethnic armed groups in northern Shan state, and warned against the disintegration of the country.