A popular inflation metric favoured by the Federal Reserve – the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index – is expected to rise an annualised 2.2 per cent on average over the next four years under either candidate, according to the survey of 29 economists done from Oct 7 to 10.
The median forecast for gross domestic product (GDP) projects a 2 per cent annualised growth rate on average, no matter who wins.
Both are slightly above the Fed's long-run estimates, which target 2 per cent PCE inflation and a 1.8 per cent advance in GDP. That is part of the reason why interest rates would stay relatively elevated under either candidate, though economists see lower borrowing costs in a Harris administration compared with Trump.
This story is from the October 16, 2024 edition of The Straits Times.
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This story is from the October 16, 2024 edition of The Straits Times.
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