Why a Trump victory will hit Europe hardest

The security impact will be felt even before his inauguration. A three-way trade war involving the US, the EU and China will also be very damaging.

- Jonathan Eyal

Who will win the US election on Nov 5 haunts the leaders of most nations. Yet nowhere is the dread about a victory for Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump more real and immediate than among the leaders of Europe.

While the rest of the world would at least have until Jan 20, 2025, when the newly elected president is formally inaugurated, before it begins to feel the impact of a new US administration, Europe's security and political arrangements could be seriously affected the moment Trump's victory is declared and well before his administration is settled in the White House.

Europe's leaders could have done a great deal during the past four years to reduce the potential impact of a return to power by Trump. But they have not accomplished much, so all they can do now is sink into their living room sofas, arm themselves perhaps with suitably fortifying drinks, and watch as the US electoral drama unfolds on their TV screens. None of this is likely to make for pleasurable viewing.

It is by now fashionable to dismiss Europe as yesterday's story. However, the fact remains that Europe is still the most significant trade bloc in the world, the biggest exporter of manufactured goods and services, and the top market for around half of the world's nations. Even if one does not add Britain America's fifth-largest importer of goods - the European Union and the US maintain the world's most extensive bilateral trade and investment relationship, accounting for almost a third of global gross domestic product (GDP).

Despite all the talk about America's "pivot" to Asia, Europe also remains the only military theatre of operation outside continental US to host permanent American nuclear facilities. Approximately 100,000 US soldiers remain deployed on Europe's soil, around 20 per cent more than the combined total of US troops in Japan and South Korea.