RBI yesterday hiked the policy rate, or repo, by 0.5 percentage points to 5.9%. It was an anticipated fourth increase since May. The analysis underpinning the monetary tightening threw up interesting information. The depreciation in the rupee against the dollar and the dip in the forex reserves are not alarming. Since April 1, the rupee dropped 6.8% against the dollar, while a basket of major currencies depreciated 16%. Also, about 60% of the dip in foreign exchange reserves is because of changes in their valuation following rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve.
But the trajectory of inflation is clouded by global uncertainty. RBI acknowledged it but retained the current financial year's inflation projection at 6.7%. Economic growth, however, was marked down to 7% from the earlier 7.2%. The main aim of the current cycle of rate hikes is to head off second round effects of inflation. This time monetary tightening is taking hold fast as retail and MSME lending of banks is mostly benchmarked to the repo. Simultaneously, Gol and states have embarked on fiscal consolidation, which complements monetary policy. It's prudent to hold back in an uncertain situation.
In the April-June quarter, GDP grew in double digits. But RBI has forecast that in the subsequent quarters till the end of the financial year growth will keep slowing down. Separately, RBI's analysis of inflation drivers showed that the April-September increase was mainly on account of supply shocks. It was the cut in fuel taxes in May that knocked off 0.4 percentage points from core inflation. In near future, global recession will dampen demand. Therefore, it may be time for a slower pace of rate hikes even as RBI's ongoing drive to drain liquidity will carry on monetary tightening.

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