Credit rating agency Moody's retained India's sovereign rating at Baa3 with a stable outlook, indicating that it's subject to moderate credit risk. Baa3 represents the medium-grade category. The rating is unsurprising. If anything, India's resilience to macroeconomic shocks is greater than what the rating implies. Moody's believes geopolitical challenges will not derail economic recovery, leading to the stable outlook. Also, that the negative feedback between the economy and financial system is receding.
Among G20 economies India stands out. The base for government debt financing is mainly domestic. The process is smoothened by RBI's liquidity operations and a mandate for banks to hold a proportion of their deposits in government debt. RBI also holds foreign exchange to insulate domestic financial markets from external shocks. India is well-placed today in terms of both retail inflation rate and forecast growth rate. Of all these factors, it's growth rate that holds the key to a stable environment. Since 1991, India's debt sustainability has rested on its growth trajectory. Barring a couple of years, economic growth has outpaced the interest rate on government debt, an important metric of debt sustainability.
Government expenditure is generally inflexible while revenue is influenced by growth. Therefore, every protracted spell of a slowdown in growth rate leads to an increase in the debt to GDP ratio. For example, states' debt to GDP ratio was 22.6% in 2012-13. Subsequently, as growth trended lower, this ratio worsened to 26.3% by 2019-20. For Gol, the ratio of interest payment to revenue increased to over 40% after the 2020-21 economic contraction from the average 36.5% in the last decade. High growth rate, therefore, is the fulcrum of debt sustainability. That, however, shouldn't deter a political conversation on the quality of spending or transparency in budgeting.&nbsp;

Growth Is Everything 

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