Turn a new leaf

Scientists join hands to predict climate future of India's tropical forests

EVERY NOW and then, biologist Deepak Barua takes a break from his usual assignments at the Indian Institute of Science Education and Research (IISER), Pune, and plans a trip to the 500 km away Sirsi forest. Located in the heart of the Western Ghats, the forest near Sirsi town of northern Karnataka is known for its tree species diversity. This is one of the latest forests that Barua has been monitoring, along with other scientists, to investigate the threat that climate change poses to the tropical tree species of India.

Studies suggest that heatwaves and frequent and intense droughts result in increased tree mortality and forest dieback across the world.

There is also evidence that extreme temperatures threaten the survival of sensitive species, resulting in local extinctions, range shifts and altered vegetation composition.

A 2010 study, published in Forest Ecology and Management, documented 88 events of forest mortality, driven by water or heat stress since 1970. A May 2024 study, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences shows that about 37 per cent of the Amazon forest in Brazil is unable to recover due to frequent droughts, suggesting the possibility of mass die-offs in near future.

However, not much is known about how tropical forests in India are going to respond to extreme temperatures and frequent and severe droughts.