We Will See Large Job Losses

How serious is the impact of automation on human jobs? Which jobs will be affected first? How is the automation revolution different from the industrial revolution? Business Today’s Rajeev Dubey posed these and other such questions to Paul Raleigh, Global Leader, Growth and Advisory Services, Grant Thornton. Excerpts from the interview:

- Rajeev Dubey

Q. Where all is automation hurting?

It’s hurting people. It’s going to hurt jobs. There are some big shocks coming which we can see. Automation will provide a shock. It will provide a shock to the middle class, the professional class, which were unscathed by the previous automation in manufacturing. The changes are going to go deeper, affect more people. The real challenge at the domestic level and at the corporate level is the new skill sets, moving people from older skills to newer skills. We’ve been hearing about automation ever since we started working. Are we working less? Are we doing anything less today? Technology has always managed to bring new opportunities, but they are going to be different opportunities. The big challenge for businesses is to move people from old opportunities to the new. In that transition, there will be some big shocks. That’s the rise of nationalism and populism you see. People are nervous – what does this mean for me, for my family?

Do you see automation leading to large-scale shrinking of jobs?

I do think that we will see large job losses. Employment will shrink in certain industries. Automation will impact services in particular — legal, audit, tax. Anything that can be automated will be automated. In that way, it is a race to the bottom, and the bottom is a ROBOT. I believe there will be significant job losses. I think it will take longer to happen than is being predicted. It’s more of an 8-10 year cycle.

Any sectors where the impact will be more?