Analyst Insight: What does the Early Bird Survey mean for markets and marketing?

As rain continues to fall across the UK, progress in winter plantings remains hampered.

According to the Environment Agency, England received 143% of the long term average rainfall in August-October, making 2019 the third wettest year in the last 20. Furthermore, rainfall in November has totalled 101% of the long term average so far.

The rainfall has significantly delayed plantings of winter wheat. The Early Bird Survey results suggest the area intended to be planted to wheat is 1.65Mha, a drop of 9% year-on-year and the lowest planted area since 2013.

Many will be intending to carry wheat planting into the New Year with a number of varieties suitable for planting late into January, albeit with associated yield and development penalties.

In other wet years we have seen yields impacted. The most recent example is harvest 2013, the wet 2012 autumn led to yields of just 7.4t/ha, 5% below the previous five-year average (excluding 2012). While it is still monumentally early to be estimating yields for harvest 2020, we can look at possible scenarios for plantings and yields.

Anecdotal reports have suggested that wheat plantings could be down by as much as 20% for harvest 2020. Accounting for an uptick in spring wheat plantings and improved conditions in the New Year, I have provisionally worked with an area drop from 10-15%.

Using a yield of 7.5t/ha to 8.0t/ha gives a plausible production range of 11.6Mt to 13.2Mt.

What does this mean for the domestic wheat market?