Recession 2020? These Experts Say It's Possible

After a decade of steady growth, the economy is starting to show signs of instability.

- Sergei Klebnikov

IT’S BEEN A DECADE since the U.S. was in a recession. And in many ways, the economy appears to be in top shape. Unemployment remains near record lows. Home prices and real wages are both rising, while inflation remains under control.

But as anyone who paid attention to business headlines in the final months of 2018 surely knows, the stock market still found plenty to worry about.

The Dow, which reached a record high as recently as Oct. 3, had one of its worst stretches in recent memory, tumbling more than 13% over the next 12 weeks to finish 2018 below where it started—its first annual decline since 2008.

Many economists and investors remain worried, saying economic and market data suggest the economy could run out of steam sometime in the next two years.

One of the biggest question marks: Does extra growth tied to the landmark 2017 tax cut prove sustainable—or does it turn out to be merely an economic sugar high?

No one may have more riding on this outcome than President Trump, who has long staked his political career on his ability to steward the economy. Of the 10 presidential incumbents who have sought reelection since the end of World War II, the only three to lose—Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, and George H.W. Bush—all went down to defeat amid periods of sluggish economic-growth, according to the Brookings Institution.