Moderate But Continued Growth Expected For Global Steel Demand: WSA

The World Steel Association (worldsteel) has forecasted that global steel demand will reach 1,622.1 mt in 2017.

 

In 2018, it is forecast that global steel demand will touch 1,648.1 mt.

Worldsteel forecasted in its short-range outlook for October 2017 that global steel demand, excluding China, will reach 856.4 mt, an increase of 2.6 percent in 2017 and 882.4 mt, in 2018, an increase of 3 percent.

Commenting on the outlook, T V Narendran, Chairman of the world steel Economics Committee, said, “Progress in the global steel market this year to date has been encouraging. We have seen the cyclical upturn broadening and firming throughout the year, leading to better-than-expected performances for both developed and developing economies, although the MENA region and Turkey have been an exception.”

The risks to the global economy that we referred to in our April 2017 outlook, such as rising populism/protectionism, US policy shifts, EU election uncertainties and China deceleration, although remaining, have to some extent abated. This leads us to conclude that we now see the best balance of risks since the 2008 economic crisis. However, escalating geopolitical tension in the Korean peninsula, China’s debt problem and rising protectionism in many locations continue to remain risk factors, Worldsteel said.

“In 2018, we expect global growth to moderate, mainly due to slower growth in China, while in the rest of the world, steel demand will continue to maintain its current momentum,” the association said.

So, world steel demand is recovering well, driven largely by cyclical factors rather than structural. The lack of a strong growth engine to replace China and a long-term decline in steel intensity due to technological and environmental factors will continue to weigh on steel demand in the future.