WHAT IF... THE BLACK DEATH HAD NEVER HAPPENED?

Professor Mark Bailey tells Nige Tassell why the world would have become a very different place had the plague outbreaks of the 14th century not triggered fundamental changes in society

Although the Black Death first struck during the seven years between 1346 and 1353, its effects would be felt for centuries after, particularly as outbreaks continued right up until the 18th century. The catastrophic loss of life with as much as 50 percent of the population being wiped out in certain regions - had a seismic effect across the globe, whether economically, socially, or religiously. The world would never be the same again. But what would the planet look like had the pandemic never happened?

To begin, Mark Bailey - professor of late medieval history at the University of East Anglia, and author of After the Black Death (Oxford University Press, 2021) explores the effect that such enormous population loss had on England. "The relentless population growth in pre-plague Britain had resulted in a perilously small size of landholding, a major rise in the proportion of landless and destitute, and a society highly sensitive to the slightest calamity, such as harvest failure. Economic growth had faltered because of a lack of effective demand and low living standards."

Had there been no pandemic, there would have been little impetus for this to change. However, the decimation of the working population created an enormous labour shortage, causing wages to rise and inequality to narrow. Without the Black Death, explains Professor Bailey, "England would have remained trapped in this desperate culde-sac of poverty, underemployment, and low productivity".