Egypt's Demographic Catastrophe

The country is in the midst of a population crisis that threatens its very existence.What can be done to avert such a disaster?

- Iain Akerman

In May this year, President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi took part in a television phone-in with veteran talk-show host Amr Adib. On the agenda was Egypt’s overpopulation crisis.

“Our efforts to face population growth are substandard, and the issue is not regulated by law, so the media must work with us, and we must act intensively on family planning,” said al-Sisi. “Population growth is a big issue and is a challenge no less dangerous than the challenge of terrorism. Poverty drives people to extremism.”

The scale of Egypt’s population crisis sometimes beggars belief. Its population grew by two million last year, giving it a growth rate double that of other developing countries. It will expand by a further two million in 2017, representing a growth rate five times higher than most developed countries. To put that in perspective, Egypt adds the equivalent of the entire population of Slovenia every year.

Within the next 40 years – if current rates persist – Egypt will hit between 160 and 180 million people, leapfrogging Russia and Japan (both of which have falling populations) by 2050. Such increases will only compound and magnify energy, water and food shortages.

And then there’s Cairo. The city’s population is set to grow by 500,000 this year, more than any other city in the world.

“Mass migration, starvation, civil unrest: overpopulation unites all of these,” wrote Bill Marsh in The New York Times last month. “Many nations’ threadbare economies, unable to cope with soaring births, could produce even greater waves of refugees beyond the millions already on the move to neighbouring countries or the more prosperous havens of Europe.”