Let's Temper Our Expectations On The Covid-19 Vaccine

Doctors most knowledgeable about vaccine development warn that, however promising a vaccine may seem now or months from now, premature release can do far more harm than good

- Eduardo Gonzales, MD

I do not doubt that we will eventually develop a safe and effective vaccine for Covid-19. The signs point to that—the virus does not mutate at a fast rate, some of the promising vaccines are already undergoing clinical trials, governments are cutting the red tape that is associated with vaccine approval, and manufacturing deals are already being signed.

But let’s temper our expectations because, despite all this good news, a safe and effective Covid-19 vaccine is unlikely to be available for mass immunization anytime soon. Furthermore, contrary to what most people think, a vaccine will not eradicate the virus overnight, if it eradicates the virus at all.

It takes time to produce a new vaccine

It takes years to produce a safe and effective vaccine. The fastest vaccine ever developed was for mumps. It took four years. Experts are not starting from scratch when it comes to the Covid-19 vaccine. The SARS-CoV-2 virus is a relative of the SARS and MERS viruses, and a lot of work has already been done on the development of a vaccine for these two infections that can be put into good use in the development of a Covid-19 vaccine. Still, the most optimistic estimates place a Covid-19 vaccine as one to two years away.