Who's next? Tories brace for a race to the bottom

Sunak is off to a strong start - but bad blood seems likely, whoever moves into No 10

- Toby Helm

Shortly after Boris Johnson struggled through prime minister's questions last Wednesday, as the list of resignations from his government grew, a senior Tory MP sat down in a quiet corner of the House of Commons and agonised alone over what to do.

He had been loyal to Johnson until then but could see the way the wind was blowing. "I really don't know," he said, grimacing and shaking his head when asked where he stood on the great question of the moment. "I know we can't go on like this. But I can't think of anything worse right now than a leadership contest."

Others preferred to consult colleagues. The corridors close to th eCommons chamber were lined with small groups of Conservative holding hushed conversations. They were all agreed that, in many respects, this would be the worst of times to bring it all to a head - with a cost of living crisis and war in Ukraine both raging, to name but two of the issues facing the government.

But everyone was clear, it had gone too far. The coup against Johnson had a momentum that was unstoppable. What worried these Tory MPs most was not Johnson's fate but what would follow. "I think the party will struggle to survive this," said one former minister last week. "I think we will split."

The same MP said Johnson's electoral appeal had been so broad at the 2019 general election - thanks mainly to the "get Brexit done" slogan - that success had bred complacency.

The party had never really addressed how it could make a success of breaking into new areas that were less traditionally Tory, how it could govern for so wide a coalition of voters behind red and blue walls alike. "Are we big state or small state? High tax, low tax? How do we actually level up? It has all been left unresolved."