First Debate Absent Trump Looms Over Republican Field

It may end up being Hamlet without the prince or, perhaps more aptly, Jaws without the shark. When Republicans gather in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, on Wednesday for the first debate of the presidential primary season, a milestone in any election campaign cycle, the clear frontrunner in the opinion polls will be missing.

- David Smith

Donald Trump, the former US president, has said he is unlikely to take part in the debate hosted by the conservative Fox News network. Some have speculated that he could deploy "counterprogramming" to steal the limelight and dominate the news cycle.

That leaves seven other candidates who have met the Republican National Committee's polling and donor requirements to qualify: Doug Burgum, Chris Christie, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Mike Pence, Vivek Ramaswamy and Tim Scott. Political analysts suggest Trump will stay away because he has nothing to gain and everything to lose. "I don't think he'll show up to that debate because he's scared to death of the level of scrutiny he would receive from someone like Chris Christie," said Tara Setmayer, a former Republican communications director on Capitol Hill.

"When you are that far ahead there's no reason for you to step on to a debate stage because the only thing that can happen is you run the greater risk of it being a negative for you."

Even in his absence, Trump's legal troubles are sure to loom over the debate. The ex-president is facing 91 charges in four criminal cases-indictments that have come to seem almost routine but are historically unique in putting America's electoral and judicial systems on a collision course.