Covid Third Wave: Watch Kerala, Maha for Early Signs

Here’s a quick guide, cutting through the chatter, on what everyone is afraid of

- Malathy Iyer

Is a Covid third wave a certainty?

The Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918 occurred in multiple waves a few months apart. The Covid pandemic is different from the 100-year-old contagion in many aspects, but it seems similar in that it has already had two waves; the second wave was mega in terms of tally and toll in most countries (just like with the Spanish Flu).

Covid’s third wave has already begun in the UK – which has seen a 45% jump in cases in a week – and a few countries in southern Africa. As we live in a highly connected global village, the third wave is likely to spread across the world despite the limited air travel.

What about India?

There is already speculation the current surge in cases in Kerala is the start of the third wave. The thick tail in Maharashtra – with daily cases still between 8,000 and 10,000 – is another worry. These two states were also associated with the start and worst peaks of two Covid waves; the rest of the country witnessed the classic second wave pattern associated with pandemics (a rapid rise and a quick decline).