Reforming The Crippled Gas Sector

Undoubtedly, the energy situation in Bangladesh is in a crucial stage. The existing gas reserves are depleting rapidly while the demand is rising due to the country’s population, and economic and industrial growth. As per the Integrated Energy and Power Master Plan (IEPMP) 2023, the gas supply should grow at 1.5%, 2.6%, and 2.5% rates during 2019-30, 2030-40, and 204050 respectively to attain the county’s growth as per the Perspective Plan of Bangladesh 2021– 2041. However, Figure 1 shows that the annual average gas production from the domestic gas fields started to decline after reaching its peak in 2017.

- Hoshne Ara Banu

The reserves figure is the key parameter to measure the strength of the oil and gas sector. According to the Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE), reserves are those quantities of petroleum anticipated to be commercially recoverable from known accumulations from a given date forward. All reserves estimates involve some degrees of uncertainty, depending chiefly on the amount of reliable geological and engineering data available at the time of estimates and the interpretation of those data. Reserves are defined as proved, probable, and possible as below:

Proved Reserves/ 1P Reserves

Proved reserves are those quantities of petroleum that can be estimated with at least 90% certainty to be commercially recoverable from known reservoirs and under current economic conditions and operating methods.

Probable Reserves/ 2P Reserves

There should be at least a 50% probability that the quantities recovered will equal or exceed the sum of estimated proved plus probable reserves.

Possible Reserves/ 3PRreserves

There should be at least a 10% probability that the quantities recovered will equal to, or exceed the sum of estimated proved plus probable plus possible reserves.

As per Table 1, the total Gas Initial In Place (GIIP) in Bangladesh is 40.260 TCF, of which 21.79 TCF is proved (1P) reserves, 28.6 TCF is probable (2P) reserves, and 30.13 TCF is possible (3P) reserves. As of December 31, 2022, 19.94 TCF of gas has been extracted. Therefore, 20.32 (40.26 - 19.94) TCF, 50% of the GIIP, remains in the subsurface of the existing fields. Though the probable (2P) reserves are considered to estimate the present and future value of assets for development planning, it is possible to increase the commercial recovery of reserves by applying advanced technology and proper reservoir management strategy.