OLIVER WYMAN FORECASTED IN EARLY 2021 THAT AN IMPENDING pilot shortage was on the horizon. Then COVID-19 came and sent the airline industry into a downward spiral with disappointing forecasts. But the air travel demand recovered fairly quickly and now nearly 1.3 million fresh civil aviation professionals will be needed by 2032. However, there has been shortage of pilots for some years and forecasts now project that demand for pilots will outstrip supply in most regions globally in 2024, and continue to worsen over the next decade.
PILOT SHORTAGE STATISTICS
According to CAE, a leading supplier of flight training services, the global population of active commercial airline pilots was 3,51,000 in 2023, and predicted a new pilot demand growth of 4.1 per cent every year. In June 2023 CAE further forecasted new commercial pilots’ demand of 2,52,000 by 2032. This includes 91,000 for Asia Pacific, 63,000 for North America, 22,000 for South America, 44,000 for Europe, 28,000 for the Middle East and 3,000 for Africa.
Boeing forecasts demand for 6,49,000 new commercial airline pilots over the next 20 years (2023 to 2042). Airbus predicts requirement of 5,85,000 new pilots in the period 2022 to 2041. Shortage is predicted to be nearly 80,000 pilots by 2032. New pilots are needed both for growth and for replacement. CAPA analysis of these forecasts suggests that the annual intake of new pilots needs to be around 7 per cent to 9 per cent of the existing active pilot population.
SHORTAGE OF PILOTS INDIA
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