A new Apple Watch Ultra is very very likely to arrive this year

Ming-Chi Kuo, corroborating Mark Gurman, says the follow-up to last year's Ultra will launch in the second half of 2023

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Generally speaking, Apple's smartwatches follow a predictable release schedule: Since the Series 3, every standard model has come out one year after its predecessor. But the nonstandard SE and Ultra models are more complicated to predict, and the latter in particular presents a conundrum. There's only been one Ultra so far, for one thing, which means there's no pattern to examine.

One theory holds that, because it's a more expensive version of the Apple Watch, customers will buy new Ultra units less frequently, and the maker will follow a similar principle when bringing out new models: every other year, perhaps. But that theory is looking increasingly shaky, with a second major analyst now nailing his colors to the annual-refresh mast.