Planning for the worst

National leaders' education could be a pointer to how well countries manage their natural-disaster risks.

- STEWART FORSYTH

Seismologist John McCloskey was shaken awake by an earthquake on February 6 this year. He was in Palestine, 650km from the 7.8-magnitude earthquake in southeastern Turkey: "The whole building was shaking. Wearing my seismologist's hat, in the middle of the night, I said to myself, "That isn't a local earthquake, that must be a long way away. But it must be really, really big."

Two decades before, the University of Edinburgh scientist had pinpointed where a large earthquake was likely to strike in southeastern Turkey. The February quake struck in exactly that location but was 20 years after McCloskey's prediction.

Clearly, getting the location right is not enough. Prediction of the timing is essential to guiding short-term action and influencing long-term planning.

For a local example, there will be a serious earthquake on the Alpine Fault (the zone where the western regions of Tasman and the West Coast are sliding north relative to the south-moving Canterbury and Otago). The probability of a quake of magnitude 7 or higher in the next 50 years is about 75%.

New Zealand is vulnerable to other disasters that are predictable except for their timing. After Cyclone Gabrielle produced catastrophic flooding of the Esk Valley (and many other areas), we were reminded that the valley is flood prone. The last major floods were in 1938. As Hastings District councillor and historian Michael Fowler said, "Generations tend to lose sight of history." That is, without a predictable date for recurrence of disaster, people forget.

In Europe, recent droughts resulted in the exposure of "hunger stones" in the beds of some rivers. In the Elbe in the Czech Republic, these words are carved in a stone: "Wenn du mich siehst, dann weine" ("If you see me, then weep"). This message to future generations was a warning of drought-induced famine.