Japan's Disappearing Act

Birth rates keep falling while life expectancy keeps rising. If the government can't find a way to stabilize population soon, the country faces a bleak future

- JOHN FENG

WHILE JAPAN'S POPULATION HAS LONG BEEN both shrinking and getting older, Asia's second biggest economy may be nearing a point of no return, according to government reports and officials.

As of October 2022, Japan's population was 124.94 million, a decrease of over half a million people from 2021 and the twelfth consecutive annual decline, according to a late April report from Japan's Statistics Bureau. The bureau said the number of working-aged Japanese between 15 to 64 fell to 74.2 million, or 58 percent of the population, the lowest percentage since 1945. Meanwhile, the number of people over 65 rose to 36.23 million, or 29 percent of the population, the highest percentage since 1920.

These trends first emerged in the early 1990s, at the tail end of the Japanese economic miracle decade. Low birth rates and high life expectancy together pose an unprecedented challenge for Tokyo's policymakers, whose search for solutions is being scrutinized in neighboring capitals.

Rapid Depopulation 

Japan's depopulation affected all prefectures except Tokyo last year and outpaced official projections. In 2022, the number of newborns fell below 800,000 for the first time since surveys began in 1899. The government previously had not expected births to dip near 800,000 until 2027.

If present trends hold, annual births could fall below half a million in 2059, the health ministry-affiliated National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS) recently said in its twice-a-decade estimate.

Japan's fertility rate-the average number of children per female-of about 1.3 was among the lowest of the mostly wealthy nations that make up the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Only Italy's 1.24 and South Korea's 0.78 were lower. All fell well below the OECD standard of 2.1 needed to maintain a stable population.