DECODING THE VOTE

Haryana results boost BJP, hurt narrative of Congress's national re-emergence. Peaceful polls in Jammu and Kashmir signal that voters believe democracy is the antidote to violence

- DR PRAMOD KUMAR

THE CONGRESS’S POLITICAL narrative that the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi were on a downhill journey—post the 2024 Lok Sabha elections— could not get the much-needed endorsement from voters in Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir.

The results have shown that a large section of voters might not have been satisfied with the BJP’s performance, but, at the same time, they did not repose confidence in the Congress to be a viable alternative, with its excessive reliance on the farmers’ protests and efforts at social engineering around caste. The political narrative was not in convergence with the logic of social dynamics. By way of counter-mobilisation, the BJP stoked memories, such as anti-dalit violence in Mirchpur in 2010 and a violent Jat agitation that targeted non-Jat businesses, which led to a Jat-focused, highpitch campaign. And, as a result, only 13 of 27 Jat candidates of the Congress won.

The AAP, which claimed to be a party with a difference and ran a massive media campaign showcasing its performance in Delhi and Punjab, could get only under 2 per cent of the votes. It is claimed that this vote share might have hurt the Congress in three to four seats. But the voters are not herds, they are social beings bound by their everyday survival needs. For the BJP, the third consecutive win in Haryana is an achievement. And peaceful elections, with a 64 per cent turnout, holds the message that the people in Kashmir firmly believe that democracy is the only antidote to violence.

A GLANCE AT THE RESULTS

The Haryana results clearly demonstrated the polarisation among the Jat and non-Jat voters.

The BJP had an edge with around 59 per cent strike rate in non-Jat dominant regions, whereas the Congress had an edge with the Jat peasantry with 48 per cent strike rate. It clearly reflects the non-Jat consolidation in favour of the BJP.