Next few months likely to see increased volatility'

The larger ecosystem still needs to evolve to have the right round-the-clock infrastructure for risks, operations, and compliance for the extended trading hours to be successful and operational effectively, said SHIV SEHGAL, president and head of Nuvama Capital Markets, in a telephonic interview with Puneet Wadhwa, on the sidelines of 19th edition of Nuvama India Investor Conference. Edited excerpts:

How do you see the markets play out in the next few months?

The next few months are likely to see increased volatility. This is owing to moderation in earnings trajectory as tailwinds from input prices fade, uncertainty on rate cuts given that the US economy is still holding up strong, general elections in India and relatively stretc ed valuations.

What about the bond markets, especially in the backdrop of inclusion in a major global bond index?

The outlook for the bond market is a lot more upbeat given the low supply of bonds from both government as well as large corporates, easing core inflation and potentially headline inflation and the beginning of the rate cut cycle.

Also, if growth slackens then there is likely to be a natural flight to bonds. The stability in bond markets will certainly act as a downside support for equities as well.

How comfortable are you with the market valuations at the current levels?

This time, aggregate market valuations are not very expensive - 19x one-year forward price-to-earnings (P/E), similar to the last fiveyear average. However, aggregates hide the skew.