Arab Spring in Syria marks a power shift

The collapse of the Assad regime has far-reaching consequences. There is genuine fear that Syria could become a safe haven for extremist groups

- Ausaf Sayeed

In a stunning turn of events, the Syrian government under President Bashar al-Assad collapsed without any resistance after a lightning offensive by rebel forces spearheaded by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) on Sunday. The offensive began on November 27 and gained momentum, with HTS swiftly capturing cities like Aleppo, Hama, Homs, Daraa and Sweida before advancing to Damascus on December 8 and taking over vital installations like the airport and the national TV station. This development marks a dramatic end to the 50-year rule of the Assad family and signals a potential reshaping of the geopolitical landscape in West Asia. President Assad reportedly fled the country and was granted asylum in Moscow.

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or the Organisation for the Liberation of the Levant, is a Sunni Islamist political and paramilitary organisation involved in the Syrian civil war since its inception in 2017. It was originally established in 2011 as Jabhat al-Nusra, a direct branch of al-Qaeda. It adheres to the Salafi school of Sunni Islam, which is prevalent in Saudi Arabia.

While it is difficult to fathom how the regime, which claimed to have controlled 70% of the territory of Syria, succumbed to such a sudden collapse, many factors seem to have contributed to it. Years of conflict left the Syrian armed forces fragmented and significantly weakened, with the morale of the troops at an all-time low. On the contrary, the opposition groups had been training and organising for years in anticipation of such an opportunity to overthrow the regime. The traditional backers of Syria—Russia and Iran—remained involved in their conflicts with Ukraine and Israel, respectively, and were unable to sustain meaningful support for Assad's regime.