India and US take the Great Leap Forward

The logic of the BushSingh understanding is finally coming to fruition under Biden and Modi. Prepare for a historic state visit this June

- Prashant Jha

Fifteen years ago, India and the United States (US) finalised the civil nuclear deal. The deal was never merely about nuclear energy. It was about removing a major impediment in bilateral ties and locking Delhi and Washington into a strategic embrace with an eye on potential Chinese belligerence.

Since then, the relationship has continued to grow in all domains, including defence, security and intelligence, even if it has happened in fits and starts. But what drove George W Bush to invest American diplomatic capital, and Manmohan Singh to stake his government’s survival, is now reaching its logical conclusion. And this is happening under two radically different political figures, Joe Biden and Narendra Modi, from two different parties than the ones in-charge in 2008. Three factors are enabling this systemic shift.

The first is political clarity and commitment. Biden has taken a political call: India is a critical actor and improving the relationship with Delhi, as a part of the US’s focus on the Indo-Pacific, is essential. India won’t be an ally and that’s fine; it can perhaps be even more effective as a partner. The administration will not allow critics of Indian democracy to define the US’s national security posture. No global problem can be addressed without India in the room. From the National Security Council to the State Department to Pentagon, officials have said that they have a clear directive from their bosses — make the India relationship work or, in the words of one policymaker, “our grandchildren will be ruled by the Chinese”. The differences over Ukraine paradoxically reinforced this line of thinking, for Washington felt that its mistaken policies during the Cold War had locked Indian systems with Russia for decades.