Russian instability need not inspire an oil rethink

India needn't reduce its crude imports from Russia even if a weaker regime in Moscow has raised risks. We need the best deal on offer and the global market for oil to remain stable

The global crude oil scene has seen a significant shift in trade after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. While the invader was Europe's big supplier of hydrocarbons before hostilities cleaved it apart from the West, its export map has pivoted eastwards, with India and China its big customers now. Since the onset of the war in February 2022, Russian crude has grown to dominate the pie of Indian imports sliced up by source countries. Last week's aborted Wagner uprising against Moscow, however, led risk analysts to ask what a Kremlin weakened and exposed to further internal strife could imply for the reliability of its oil exports. That the world oil market gave up early price gains after the weekend turmoil in Russia suggests traders do not foresee any major disrup Yet, India's risks are more direct. Given that we import 85% of our crude oil and a discount deal with Moscow underpins a significant bulk of these shipments, is it time to re-evaluate this strategy?