Analysis A new flashpoint and fresh fears emerge in the South China Sea

Hopes that tensions in the South China Sea might ease have proved shortlived.

- Rebecca Ratcliffe

Only weeks after the Philippines and China struck a deal to try to stop dangerous confrontations at Second Thomas Shoal, a new flashpoint has emerged.

Over recent weeks, Manila has accused Chinese personnel of ramming its boats, blasting them with water cannon and firing flares at its aircraft, with incidents often centred on a new location, an atoll called Sabina Shoal. It comes as tensions in the South China Sea, a strategically important waterway that links the Indian and Pacific Oceans, were already at their highest in a decade.

A series of escalating incidents has provoked warnings that an error of judgment at sea could inadvertently spiral into armed conflict. This would risk drawing the US, a Philippine ally, into confrontation with China.

Analysts warn the political stakes for Manila and Beijing around Sabina Shoal could lead to an even more drawn-out struggle.

"Both countries have a lot to lose if they give up, in part because they both made such strong statements," said Ray Powell, the director of SeaLight, a maritime transparency project at Stanford University.