From Trump tariffs to AI: Big economic questions faced by the world this year
The Guardian|January 06, 2025
January is always a time for new beginnings and fresh thinking.
Heather Stewart
From Trump tariffs to AI: Big economic questions faced by the world this year

But with Donald Trump heading for the White House and a new(ish) Labour government in charge of a faltering UK economy, the onset of 2025 seems especially portentous.

Forecasting is a mug's game, as the former Bank of England governor Mervyn King used to say about predicting exchange rates; but here are some of the big economic questions to ponder as the new year gets under way:

Will Labour get the stronger economy it promised voters?

Far from signalling recovery, the latest data showed UK GDP flatlining with confidence weak as businesses brace themselves for April's £25bn increase in employer national insurance contributions (NICs). Given that Labour had ruled out every other big revenue-raiser, it was one of the few places Rachel Reeves could turn to to fund public services. But it has fuelled a furious response – and set up a narrative that Labour has clobbered the economy.

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