Lichtman established his Lichtman Theory based on some 120 presidential polls in the USA in 1981. Since then, he has accurately predicted the winners of nine out of 10 last US presidential polls - missing out only in the 2000 polls when George W. Bush edged out Al Gore - in a contested bout that was resolved by the Supreme Court.
That means Lichtman had accurately predicted the wins of Ronald Reagan (1981-1989), George H.W. Bush (1989-1993), Bill Clinton (1993-2001), George W.H. Bush (2005-2009), Barack Obama (2009-2017), Donald Trump (2017-2021) and Joe Biden (2021-2025). Total of nine elections and reelections.
His Theory is based on 13 key points which are benchmarked against the incumbent party. These include the economy, foreign policy, domestic social unrest, inflation and the presence of strong third-party candidates.
If the incumbent (Harris-Democrat) fails in six or more of the 13 keys they will lose; if five keys or less, they will win. Lichtman predicts Democrats will fail in only five keys now, including foreign policy, which makes him predict that Harris will beat Trump this year in the Nov. 5 polls.
Popular vote vs electoral college
Bu hikaye The Philippine Star dergisinin November 01, 2024 sayısından alınmıştır.
Start your 7-day Magzter GOLD free trial to access thousands of curated premium stories, and 9,000+ magazines and newspapers.
Already a subscriber ? Giriş Yap
Bu hikaye The Philippine Star dergisinin November 01, 2024 sayısından alınmıştır.
Start your 7-day Magzter GOLD free trial to access thousands of curated premium stories, and 9,000+ magazines and newspapers.
Already a subscriber? Giriş Yap
JETSETTER-APPROVED DESTINATIONS TO GO BIG ON YOUR CHRISTMAS TRIP
Doc Kim, aka The Moonlighting Doctor, Jax Reyes, The Poor Traveler, and Amanda Griffin-Jacob spill their favorite holiday trips, mishaps, and more
A Hallyu fan's itinerary
Experience South Korea and fulfill your \"K\" fantasy
Mobile apps to organize your perfect Christmas getaway
These mobile applications can help you arrange a million journeys in just one device
'TIS THE SEASON TO HAVE THE BEST HOLIDAY EXPERIENCE AT NEWPORT WORLD RESORTS
The most wonderful time of the year has arrived, casting Newport World Resorts in festive cheer, cozy staycations, and seasonal events across the property.
Catriona Gray on Chelsea Manalo: I'm really proud of her
Former Miss Universe Catriona Gray shared her thoughts on the recently concluded Miss Universe 2024 in Mexico, expressing pride in the Philippines' representative, Chelsea Manalo, despite her not advancing to the Top 12.
JONATHAN ROUMIE ON PLAYING JESUS IN 'THE CHOSEN': MY LIFE WAS COMPLETELY CHANGED
AMERICAN ACTOR Jonathan Roumie has shared how his life got \"completely changed\" after being cast as Jesus in the most popular faith-based series, \"The Chosen\"
'Gladiator 3' already in works, says director
LOS ANGELES - Ridley Scott's long-awaited \"Gladiator\" sequel has not even hit US theaters yet, but the veteran director is already hard at work on a third installment.
Say It Clear Say It Loud is a love letter to the world
I wanted to create a stronger presence for the LGBT community in relevant social spaces so our messages of hope, love, acceptance, and equality can be heard loud and clear.
EDDIE ROMERO'S 'GANITO' SELECTED FOR UNESCO MEMORY OF THE WORLD
Blitz review
ROBINSONS ARTABLADO PRESENTS VICSON APOSTOL'S 'HOME'
For Filipino artist Vicson Apostol, the idea of \"home\" transcends the confines of walls and roofs.
