Phl economy remains resilient

We must be doing something right even though we all feel that the cost of living has gotten more expensive, as some foreign economists still see the Philippines as performing better economically than some of its peers in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations plus three.

- MARIANNE GO

In its latest quarterly update, the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) forecasts the ASEAN+3 region to grow at 4.2 percent in 2024 and improve to 4.4. percent in 2025 in its ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO). Continued recovery in external trade and tourism, alongside resilient domestic demand, AMRO said would remain the key drivers of growth.

The latest 2024 forecast for the ASEAN+3 region represents a slight downward revision from the July 2024 AREO update forecast of 4.4 percent, primarily due to adjustments for China and Vietnam. The plus-3 economies (China, Hong Kong (China), Japan and Korea) are projected to grow at 4.1 percent, while ASEAN is expected to expand by 4.7 percent this year.

In its updated report, AMRO revised downward its 2024 growth projections for China to five percent from its July projection of 5.3 percent. Similarly, projections for Hong Kong, China were also brought down from 3.5 percent to 3.3 percent. For our ASEAN peers Indonesia and Vietnam, their growth projections for this year were adjusted downward to 5.1 percent from 5.2 for Indonesia, and for Vietnam from 6.3 to 6.2 percent.

The Philippines, however, was seen maintaining its projected 6.1 percent growth by AMRO for this year even as the International Monetary Fund, on the other hand, projects a more significant decline in growth this year to 5.8 percent from its earlier projection of six percent.

The IMF based its lower growth calculation on the assumption that private consumption has slowed down, something that I feel and have observed in terms of my now frequent visits to shopping malls.