A post-Assad Syria has just raised the risk of more conflict in the Middle East in 2025

With the future of the country up for grabs, warring militias are not the only parties with stakes in the outcome. Russia and Iran have interests to protect too despite their setback.

- Jonathan Eyal

The fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, whose family has ruled the country with an iron fist for more than half a century, is a massive bonus to Israel and the United States; on this simple proposition, everyone who either knows or studies the Middle East agrees.

Mr Assad's Syria functioned as a conduit for Iranian weapons to Hezbollah, the Shi'ite militia based in neighboring Lebanon, which used to be regarded as the Jewish state's most lethal foe. He was also the linchpin of the so-called Axis of Resistance, the group of radical states and militias determined to kick out the US from the Middle East. And if this was not enough, Mr Assad's Syria was also host to the only Russian military bases in the region.

One would expect, therefore, that the sight of Mr Assad fleeing Damascus, his capital, in the early hours of Dec 8 for exile in Russia would bring joy to Israeli and US officials; one of their formidable opponents is, finally, gone.

But things are more complicated than that.

Israel's first response within hours after Mr Assad's fall was to launch a heavy aerial bombardment of targets inside Syria. And the Americans followed suit by conducting bombings.

Both Israel and the US rushed into military action because they came to the same conclusion: that far from being a friendly place, a post-Assad Syria is likely to be a messy affair, a scene for further proxy conflicts. Thus, preparing for this grim future by destroying today's Syrian weapons made sense to both the Americans and Israelis.

As the year closes, the fall of Mr Assad opens the door to another round of power play in the Middle East, where the prospect of peace and stability is always theoretically just around the corner but never arrives. Sadly, much worse can be expected from the region in the coming year.

TURKISH TRIUMPH