By-election in PH stronghold of Selangor a test of support for coalition

Defeat in seat with large Indian minority would be signal even non-Malays sare having doubts about unity govt

- Shannon Teoh

A by-election in Selangor in May will have little bearing on the stability of either the federal or state governments led by Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim's Pakatan Harapan (PH) pact, but will be a bellwether of whether a slew of recent controversies has soured support towards the ruling alliance.

The vote for the state assembly seat of Kuala Kubu Baharu (KKB), a constituency about an hour north of Kuala Lumpur, will be held on May 11 after the incumbent, Ms Lee Kee Hiong from the Democratic Action Party (DAP), a PH component, died on March 21.

Observers are discussing recent precedents that could affect the KKB vote. In six state polls pitching PH and its allies against opposition Perikatan Nasional (PN) in August 2023, both sides were returned to power in the same three states they each controlled prior to the vote.

But PN gained seats in all six states and subsequently increased its vote share in several by-elections later in the year thanks to major gains in areas dominated by the Malay-Muslim majority.

The prevailing narrative from the ruling alliance - established after the 2022 General Election and made up of PH and hitherto bitter foes has been that these contests have ended in "status quo". But experts and political insiders believe PN now has a chance to send shudders through the political landscape if it is able to flip KKB, a non-Malay majority and semi-rural seat in Malaysia's richest state.

"A seat like this cannot be won on the back of just Malay support. But now there is concern about Indians swinging over to PN," an aide to chief minister Amirudin Shari, a vice-president in Datuk Seri Anwar's Parti Keadilan Rakyat, told The Straits Times.

KKB is one of only a handful of wards nationally that have a significant Indian minority.