Israel dreams of a new order in the Middle East

But escalating the conflict further is more likely to lead to regional chaos.

- Gideon Rachman

The killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah came just a few days before the first anniversary of Hamas' Oct 7 attacks on Israel.

With its decapitation of Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Israeli government hopes that it has finally seized the initiative in the battle with its regional enemies. The US is urging Israel not to escalate the conflict further. But Israel is likely to see the current moment as too good an opportunity to miss.

Many now want to press home the advantage, in the hope of striking a decisive blow against not just Hezbollah, but also Iran - and the "axis of resistance" that it leads, which includes Hamas, Hezbollah, militias in Iraq and Syria, and the Houthis in Yemen. In the aftermath of Nasrallah's killing, Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu talked about an opportunity for "changing the balance of power in the region for years". If Israel can gravely damage the "axis of resistance", its achievement would be quietly welcomed in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates - which also fear Iran and have fought a war against the Houthis.

Unlike the Israeli government, the Saudis continue to insist that establishing a Palestinian state is critical to achieving lasting peace in the Middle East. The Saudi government also has good reason to fear the escalation of regional hostilities that could threaten their ambitious development plans.

For Israel, changing the balance of power also involves reversing the national narrative of defeat and confusion that set in after Oct 7.