There could be more deaths than births by first half of 2030s, says PMO

Singapore population will shrink without immigration, affecting economy: Experts

- Theresa Tan

In 10 years or so, there could be more funerals than baby showers as the number of deaths outstrips births among Singaporeans.

If - or when - this happens, Singapore's population would shrink without immigration.

This will have far-reaching consequences, including for the size of Singapore's workforce and economic dynamism, say academics who study population issues. It will also have an impact on the caregiving burden and the social fabric, they noted.

On Sept 9, Minister in the Prime Minister's Office (PMO) Indranee Rajah said in a written reply to a parliamentary question: "Based on current trends, the number of citizen deaths could exceed the number of citizen births in the first half of the 2030s."

She was responding to Non-Constituency MP Hazel Poa, who had asked for the number of citizen deaths in the past decade, and the year in which this figure would exceed citizen births.

There were 24,726 citizen deaths in 2023. This was a 40 per cent jump from 17,691 deaths in 2014.

In contrast, citizen births fell over the same time period. A PMO spokeswoman told The Straits Times that there were 28,877 such births in 2023, a 13 per cent fall from 33,193 in 2014.

Citizen births refer to those of babies who have at least one Singaporean parent, as such babies automatically get Singapore citizenship at birth, said the spokeswoman.

In her reply, Ms Indranee said the projections are meant to illustrate the growth and change in population that could happen if certain demographic assumptions prevail over the projected period. These assumptions may or may not be realised, she added.

These assumptions refer to those made about future fertility rates, migration and life expectancies, the PMO spokeswoman said.