Trump is playing high-stakes poker on tariffs

Donald Trump isn't even president yet, but the world is already locked into a dysfunctional dance with him.

- Rana Foroohar

His tariff war while pundits prognosticate about all the disastrous things that will follow. But most of these analyses fundamentally misinterpret the President-elect and his "policies". Trump is not a policymaker. He's not even a protectionist (that would require a political belief system). Neither is he a true nationalist (ditto). He's an opportunist.

If you think of the global economy as one giant Las Vegas gaming table, the US consumer market as the world's most valuable chip and Trump as a wily dealmaker in a high-stakes poker game, then you will better understand what the next four years might look like.

For starters, let's remember that nothing and I mean nothingthat the next US president says can be counted as fact until the ink is dry and, if history is a guide, probably not even then.

We keep trying to analyse Trump's moves in the way we would those of a normal president.

But he is not a normal holder of the office, and never will be. He is a compulsive dealmaker, someone who loves to drive a hard bargain and win or at least appear to.

This is the true context for the new tariffs he promised last week on Mexico, Canada and China.

Think of the move not as some clear sign of America First protectionism, nostalgia for manufacturing, the opening salvo in a well-planned industrial policy, or even any real concern about illegal immigration across US borders or opioid-addicted Americans receiving fentanyl via e-commerce packages from China.