Weak ringgit still likely for first half of year, but worst is over: Analysts

Potential US rate cuts, anticipated higher semiconductor sales may drive currency up

- Zunaira Saieed

KUALA LUMPUR - The ringgit is likely to stay weak in the first six months of 2024 as Malaysia grapples with China's economic slump, a strong US dollar and delayed economic reforms at home, but the currency's plunge has bottomed out, say analysts.

The ringgit hit a 26-year low on Feb 20, falling to RM4.7965 against the US dollar, its weakest level since the 1998 Asian financial crisis when it hit RM4.8850.

The currency also hit an all-time low of RM3.56 against the Singapore dollar the same day.

But OCBC Bank currency strategist Christopher Wong said: "We may have passed the worst for the ringgit."

He told The Straits Times: "The ringgit's weakness will be temporary and will gradually start to fade off after certainty on when the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates and a recovery in China's economic growth in the second half of 2024. But this may require patience."

Like other analysts, Mr Wong is banking on a gradual recovery in Malaysia's exports to revive the ringgit, driven by an anticipated growing demand for semiconductors and economic rebound in China, the country's largest trading partner.

The government has also indicated it could defend the ringgit as well as implement economic reforms, which should also help stabilise the currency.

Mr Wong expects the currency to gradually strengthen to RM4.60 by the end of the year. But it will likely trade in the range of RM4.72 to RM4.76 against the greenback for the first half of 2024, and average at RM4.71 for the whole year, he said.

The 2023 average was RM4.56 to the US dollar.