Missiles Are Now Biggest Killer Of Fliers

Passenger flights have become very safe—except when they go near conflicts

- DANIEL MICHAELS AND BENJAMIN Katz

Jetliners being accidentally blasted out of the sky has become the leading cause of commercial-aviation deaths in recent years-a new trend that runs counter to an otherwise improving safety picture.

The crash Wednesday of an Azerbaijan Airlines jetliner in Kazakhstan, if officially confirmed as a shootdown, would be the third major fatal downing of a passenger jet linked to armed conflict since 2014, according to the Flight Safety Foundation's Aviation Safety Network, a global database of accidents and incidents. The tally would bring to more than 500 the number of deaths from such attacks during that time.

Preliminary results of Azerbaijan's investigation into the crash indicate the plane was hit by a Russian antiaircraft missile, or shrapnel from it, said people briefed on the probe.

"It adds to the worrying catalog of shootdowns now," said Andy Blackwell, an aviation risk adviser at security specialist ISARR and former head of security at Virgin Atlantic. "You've got the conventional threats, from terrorists and terrorist groups, but now you've got this accidental risk as well." No other cause of aviation fatalities on commercial airliners comes close to shootdowns during those years, according to ASN data. The deadliness of such attacks is a dramatic shift: In the preceding 10 years, there were no fatal shootdowns of scheduled commercial passenger flights, ASN data show.

The trend highlights the difficulty-if not impossibility-of protecting civilian aviation in war zones, even for rigorous aviation regulators.