Much work to do on the BBQ circuit

As MPs scurried out of Ottawa’s oppressive heat this week for what is likely the last summer break before the next federal election — the fixed election is set for October 2025, but it’s difficult to see NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh supporting the Liberals’ next budget — many were looking forward to hitting the barbecue circuit and taking time to recharge. But for the parties, the reprieve from the daily to and fro on Parliament Hill is a crucial time for a reset. And they badly need it.

- ALTHIA RAJ

With the next election now in sight, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and other party leaders should each take the summer to consider what they plan to offer voters when they return to Ottawa in the fall, Althia Raj writes.

The Liberals

What happens to the Grits this summer may be determined by what happens Monday evening in the Toronto—St. Paul’s byelection. Liberal MPs will be hitting the refresh button on Elections Canada’s website for results, but not everyone will be wishing for a big win. Some MPs, who’ve been too scared to tell Prime Minister Justin Trudeau what they’re really hearing at the doorstep, hope a defeat or near defeat gives Trudeau pause about continuing, and encourages other Liberals to call for new leadership.

But reports from the field suggest the Conservatives aren’t pulling out their vote. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre may not want to give the Grits a reason to dump their leader.

Toronto—St. Paul’s is a Liberal stronghold and should never have been in question. But Trudeau’s unpopularity, a desire for change, and a significant Jewish population in the riding dissatisfied by the Liberals’ approach to the war in Gaza has put the riding in play. Expectations were lowered to such a point that any win may be spun by those around Trudeau as a decisive victory.