In the second week of April, UN’s International Labour Organization (ILO) said that about 400 million workers from informal sector in India are likely to be pushed deeper into poverty due to COVID-19. There is no dispute that poverty will worsen in the country, but the question is by how much? We try and answer this in the article using data with the National Sample Survey Office (NSSO) and the erstwhile Planning Commission.
Through quinquennial surveys, NSSO offers estimates of monthly per capita consumption expenditure ( MPCE) of households. This data, which is taken as proxy for income, was the basis of estimating poverty levels by the Planning Commission. Latest data in this regard is available for 2011-12 (2017-18 NSSO report is pending for release) and that year 21.9 per cent of the country's population, or about 270 million people, were estimated to be living below the poverty line. Using NSSO’s MPCE data and Planning Commission’s state-level poverty data as our base, we simulate the impact of income shock due to COVID-19 on the country's poverty level.
We simulate an income shock scenario, where individuals suffer a loss for three months, implying a loss of about 25 per cent in average MPCE for the year. We assume a uniform shock across the fractiles (based on MPCE, NSSO distributes population into 12 fractiles or cut-off points) and that incomes would return to pre- COVID-19 levels after the disruption from March to May.
هذه القصة مأخوذة من طبعة July 01, 2020 من Down To Earth.
ابدأ النسخة التجريبية المجانية من Magzter GOLD لمدة 7 أيام للوصول إلى آلاف القصص المتميزة المنسقة وأكثر من 9,000 مجلة وصحيفة.
بالفعل مشترك ? تسجيل الدخول
هذه القصة مأخوذة من طبعة July 01, 2020 من Down To Earth.
ابدأ النسخة التجريبية المجانية من Magzter GOLD لمدة 7 أيام للوصول إلى آلاف القصص المتميزة المنسقة وأكثر من 9,000 مجلة وصحيفة.
بالفعل مشترك? تسجيل الدخول
A SPRIG TO CARE FOR
Punarnava, a perennial herb, is easy to grow and has huge health benefits
DIGGING A DISASTER
Soapstone mining near Dabti Vijaypur village has caused many residents to migrate.
REVIEW THE TREATMENT
Several faecal sludge treatment plants in Uttar Pradesh suffer from design flaws that make the treatment process both expensive and inefficient
MAKE STEEL SUSTAINABLE
As India works to double its GDP by 2030, its steel industry must balance growth with sustainability. By embracing policies like the Steel Scrap Recycling Policy 2019 and adopting green technologies, India is paving the way for a more sustainable future in steel production
Can ANRF pull off the impossible for India?
Anusandhan National Research Foundation is expected to reorient India's innovation goals but funding issues, old mindsets remain a drag
TROUBLED WOODS
Forests are a great bulwark against climate change. But this is fast changing. AKSHIT SANGOMLA travels through some of the pristine patches of the Western Ghats to explore how natural disturbances triggered by global warming now threaten the forest health
BLINDING GLOW
The science is clear: increased illumination has damaging consequences for the health of humans, animals and plants. It’s time governments introduced policies to protect the natural darkness and improved the quality of outdoor lighting.
GROUND REALITY
What happens when the soil loses the ability to grow healthy, high-yield crops on its own?
GM POLICY MUST BE FARMER CENTRIC
On July 23, the Supreme Court of India directed the Union government to develop a national policy on genetically modified (GM) crops for research, cultivation, trade and commerce through public consultation.
Vinchurni's Gandhi
A 96-year-old farmer transforms barren land into a thriving forest in drought-prone region of Satara