How to Play a Shifting Economy

These companies stand to gain as businesses move operations closer to home and focus on productivity.

- KIM CLARK

The economic banishment of all things Russian. Tariffs on Chinese imports. Pandemiccaused shortages of computer chips, bicycles, garage door parts and other imports. Brexit. Just about everywhere you turn, you can see that the tectonic plates of the global economy have stopped converging and are starting to pull apart in ways that will determine new winners and losers, says Ethan Harris, head of global economics for Bank of America Securities. "Deglobalization is a gradual process, and in the long run, very important" to investors, he says, because it will have profound impacts on corporate profitability.

Globalization refers to the increase of commerce across borders. U.S. companies prospered for decades as new markets opened for their goods and labor costs plummeted thanks to overseas production. Strategists at BofA have estimated that over the past 20 years, globalization has contributed more than half of what has been a robust expansion in profit margins. Globalization has also helped to deliver low-cost goods to American consumers.

But now, says market strategist Ed Yardeni, the pandemic and spreading political and military conflicts have stretched supply chains past the breaking point, prompting companies to bring many operations closer to home. "Deglobalization was almost inevitable," Yardeni says. U.S. companies are starting to "reshore" production back to the U.S., "near-shore" it to neighbors such as Mexico, or "friend-shore" it to allies such as Vietnam.