MONSOON FORECAST A BOOST TO FARM SECTOR PROSPECTS - Skymet sees normal rains

PRIVATE WEATHER FORECASTER Skymet on Tuesday forecast 'normal' monsoon rainfall during June-September this year, after below-normal and patchy rains witnessed last year.

- SANDIP DAS

This augurs well for the agriculture sector which saw 4.4% annual decline in output in the 2023-24 crop year (July-June), after a steady rise witnessed for six straight years.

Robust monsoon could also have a positive impact on rural consumption demand which has remained tepid for several quarters, and is believed to be on the cusp of revival.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is likely to announce its first forecast for this year's monsoon in the next couple of days.

Rainfall in the forthcoming monsoon season is likely to be 102% of the benchmark long period average (LPA) with an average error margin of +/- 5%, Skymet said. Rainfall in the range of 96104% of LPA is considered normal.

However, the monsoon season may start with risk of impairment, the agency said, and attributed this to the "remnant impacts of El Nino phenomenon." The second half of the season (August-September) will, however, have an "overwhelming edge" over the primal (June-July) phase, it said.