Against the odds Sunak turns to 1997 playbook, but hopes for a different ending

With a Labour victory looking increasingly probable, John Major's pitch to voters in 1997 was simple.

- Larry Elliott

Britain had come a long way, the then prime minister said in his foreword to his party's manifesto. "We must be sure that we do not throw away what we have gained, or lose the opportunities we have earned."

Sound familiar? It is the same argument Rishi Sunak is deploying as he seeks to defy the opinion polls and win a fifth successive Conservative election victory. The election timing was influenced by Sunak's sense that he could persuade voters it would be unwise to entrust the economy to Labour. In fact there was far more evidence in 1997 that the economy had "turned the corner", yet Major's Tories fell to a landslide defeat.

Like Sunak, Major was battling against the public's mood that it was time for a change. Like Sunak, Major had to contend with voter unhappiness about the run-down state of the public sector. Like Sunak, Major was faced with egregious examples of sleazy behaviour from his MPs that tarnished his party's reputation.

Yet in terms of the economy there is no real comparison. Britain posted 0.6% growth for the last quarter, which followed a minirecession in the second half of 2023. In 1997, the economy had been growing for more than five years and in each quarter of 1997 grew by 1% or more.

That growth was broadly based.

Manufacturing output was strong and in early 1997 the balance of payments was in the black. House prices had been through a slump in the early 1990s and had just started to recover.