Can a single election put a stop to Europe's far right?

Voters in the German state of Brandenburg go to the polls this weekend, in the last of a trio of regional elections in the former East Germany that are seen as a gauge of the political climate - not just in these states, not just in Germany, but across Europe.

- MARY DEJEVSKY

At the centre of attention will be the showing of Alternative fur Deutschland (AfD), which is running neck and neck with the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD), who have governed Brandenburg since reunification.

The AfD, described variously as a far-right or populist party, goes into the election with the wind in its sails. In state elections three weeks ago, it topped the poll in Thuringia – the first time a far-right party had done so in any German state since the Second World War – and came a close second to the centre-right CDU in Saxony.

While there are specific aspects of the history, geography and politics of the former East Germany that may have provided especially fertile ground for the AfD to grow, its appeal is also rising – although not to the same extent – in the rest of Germany, with possible implications for the general election, due this time next year.

While the AfD’s performance in Thuringia carries most symbolism, as the state where the Nazi Party first won an election, a win for the AfD in Brandenburg would also resonate nationally – but for slightly different reasons. Brandenburg has long been one of the most politically stable states, with the SPD remaining in government for the past 30 years. With its proximity to Berlin, it has escaped some of the economic doldrums experienced by other former East German states. It has also experienced less immigration and less outward migration than other parts of the former East.

These could also be reasons why, though the latest polls give the AfD a lead of between 4 and 1 percentage points over the SPD, that lead has been slipping, and the SPD could yet prevail.