UNFOLDING GEOPOLITICAL LANDSCAPE IN INDO-PACIFIC

SHEKHAR SINHA argues why India's maritime threats must be neutralised in distant seas, lest enemies' long-range missiles should threaten the land-based assets and airbases which could severely restrict our ability to prevent Chinese ingress on land borders

A statement which is attributed to the Bolshevik revolutionary Vladimir Lenin reads like this: “There are decades where nothing happens and there are weeks where decades happen”. He was referring to rapid collapse of Tsarist Russia just over 100 years ago. But looking at the unfolding of Geopolitics in the Asia Pacific, Lenin would have probably said that there are decades when centuries happen.

A slightly modified paragraph from an article written by Richard Haass in the Foreign Affairs, September December issue, titled: “The Dangerous Decade” sums up the current state of rapidly changing geopolitical dynamics.

Though I have titled this writeup more to reflect the Indo-Pacific; it cannot be seen independent of the rest of the 30 percent of world’s continental landmass. Therefore, the turmoil in Afghanistan, conflict between Ukraine and Russia, China’s aggressiveness in blockading Taiwan, latest China wanting to carve out its maritime supremacy in the Indian Ocean by assembling 19 IOR countries which doesn’t include India and not the least- the border expansionism in Eastern Ladakh which doesn’t seem to get resolved. As if security issues were not enough, the economy of the world has nosedived southwards post Covid-19 pandemic. Global supply chain has all but disrupted cautioning the developed and developing world of reimagining new processes. Ukraine-Russia conflict has provided opportunity to the US to jump in to wear out Russian political and military power. The sanctions by the US on countries for trading with Russia particularly importing oil and gas has created fracture in the European Union. Some of major economies are readying to suffer harsh winters due to Russian gas having been restricted from supplying.