The Next Big Wave Of Internet Users

Eleven emerging markets — some of which may surprise you — will account for many of the Internet’s next billion users. Companies will need new skills to serve them.

- Prashant Sarin, David Crawford, Annie Klemp And Caesar Sengupta

It’s easy to think of the Internet as being nearly ubiquitous, but there are still billions of people who don’t have regular access to it. That’s changing — and it’s changing rapidly — thanks to a once-in-ageneration confluence of trends across emerging markets.

From 2013 to 2017, nearly one billion new Internet users came online. Almost half of these users were in 11 developing countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America, according to Euromonitor.

These 11 markets also will account for a significant share of the next billion users who will come online by 2021, according to an analysis of economic and demographic trends by Google and Bain & Company. For companies looking for new customers, these 11 next-billion-user countries create enormous opportunities — and also present unique challenges.

AN EXPLOSION OF CONNECTIVITY

Internet usage used to correlate closely with affluence. The more disposable income people had, the more likely they were to be online. But thanks to innovations in technology, rising levels of investment in infrastructure, and increased affordability of devices and services, the relationship between per capita GDP and Internet usage is starting to weaken. Even some of the world’s least affluent countries are poised to see explosive growth in connectivity, and much of that growth will take place outside major metropolises, in second- and third-tier cities.

To come up with the list of next billion-user countries, we looked at the 15 countries where Internet use grew the fastest in 2017 and focused on those with per capita gross national income of less than $20,000 per year. Our analysis excludes China, which we believe should be treated separately because it has characteristics that differ from other emerging markets, including high Internet penetration and intense competition.