The Paradoxes Of Pandemics

As with the varied impact of the 1918 Spanish flu, the long-term consequences of Covid-19 can’t be predetermined.

- Johan Fourie

When a crisis hits, economic historians are in demand. The 2008 financial crisis made students of the Great Depression popular commentators and policy consultants. The swift and correct reaction by the US Federal Reserve was undeniably aided by the fact that its chair at the time, Ben Bernanke, had written his PhD on the 1930s depression and the weak monetary response that exacerbated the crisis.

The current global pandemic is no different. Now the historical analogy, of course, is the 1918 Spanish flu, an influenza pandemic that killed an estimated 6% of (or 300 000) South Africans and as many as 50m people globally. Although far less studied by economic historians than the Great Depression, Covid-19 and its global impact have ensured that the research gap is closing quickly. Several dozen working papers have appeared since March, investigating the economic, demographic and political consequences of the flu.

What have we learned from this new research? In short: the impact of the flu varied. Just as Covid-19 has had very different effects between and within countries – consider Sweden versus Norway or the Western Cape versus KwaZulu-Natal – so too did the Spanish flu of 1918 have very different outcomes, in the short as well as in the long run.