TRUMP'S VICTORY: WHAT WILL IT UNFOLD FOR INDIA

For India, one of the most significant aspects of Trump's return will be his approach to China. There is a possibility that Trump will continue to view India through a transactional lens, prioritising trade deficits and economic returns. The role which the US plays as the global tech powerhouse is the model for future growth which cuts across economy to security. In all potential, there are mostly positive signs, rather another defining era for Indo-US relations could unfold if indicators are right. The convergence of mutual interest for both democracies is too obvious.

- MANISH KUMAR JHA

THE RETURN OF DONALD TRUMP TO THE WHITE HOUSE IN 2024 is likely to have far-reaching implications not just for the United States but for its global partners, with India being no exception. As the world’s largest democracy, India has cultivated a complex but robust relationship with the US over the past few decades, navigating through geopolitical, economic, and diplomatic shifts. Trump’s presidency in 2016-2020 was marked by a series of bold and often unpredictable policy moves, and the possibility of his return raises important questions about how his second term will reshape Indo-US relations.

In 2025, with Trump back in office, will India have to navigate and balance between greater strategic collaboration but also the risk of further economic friction built on his assertion around trade and tariffs?

STRATEGIC ALLIANCE OR TACTICAL POSTURING?

One of the most significant legacies of Trump’s first term was strengthening the US-India strategic partnership. Under his leadership, the US and India moved closer, particularly in the areas of defence, counterterrorism, and trade. Trump’s administration voiced strong support for India’s territorial integrity, especially concerning Pakistan, while recognising India as a key counterweight to China in the IndoPacific region. This alignment with India’s broader regional and global aspirations signalled a partnership that went beyond traditional diplomatic niceties.

Trump’s “America First” foreign policy was equally marked by unpredictability and occasional erraticism. India benefitted from his assertive stance against China, but Trump’s transactional approach to diplomacy left many of India’s long-term goals in a state of uncertainty. The trade tariffs and the US pullback from multilateral agreements, such as the Paris Climate Agreement, left India grappling with a world order that was being rapidly redefined.