Aluminium prices have run higher to $2,600 per tonne levels due to a tight supply-demand equation.
The metal could go into a supply deficit in 2025 due to a combination of production cuts by Russia, civil unrest in Mozambique affecting a smelter, Guinea's bauxite export ban, and China's withdrawal of 13 per cent tax rebate to aluminium exporters. Demand may also slow down in Europe and in China's property sector, but despite that Beijing's aluminium demand is expected to grow about 2 per cent in 2024, and to sustain in 2025.
The suspension of bauxite exports by Guinea in October 2024 has tightened the alumina market. Meanwhile, Alcoa closed its Kwinana refinery in Australia and Rio Tinto has announced a closure on declaration of force majeure at its Queensland refineries due to gas shortages. Guinea exported 14.1 million tonnes (mt) of bauxite last year, and plays a crucial role globally, translating into 6-7 mt of alumina (the global market size is 137 mt). Hence, alumina may remain tight in the medium term.
Diese Geschichte stammt aus der December 19, 2024-Ausgabe von Business Standard.
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